Bloggingกs Future: Up, Up and Away?
by: Dr V P Kochikar
Beyond a doubt, blogging has a bright future. Itกs tempting to get carried away by all the exuberance being generated.
Bill Gates says blogging กwill fundamentally change how we document our livesก. Technoratiกs CEO David Sifry says that there are 11 blog posts being made every second!
While this may well be true, we must resist the temptation to get carried away. Letกs analyze bloggingกs prospects as a กpersonal technologyก, or a technology that individuals use to improve their effectiveness or productivity, or simply to have fun.
All successful personal technologies that gain widespread use (be it the humble pen, the telephone or the iPod), bear certain hallmarks: they are easy to use, fulfil a basic need, and provide a new way to express an existing behavior or habit. Technologies that make the cut on these three respects tend to ‘takeoffก, with their use surging steeply*.
Blogging certainly fulfils a basic need, the need for selfexpression and social interaction. It is also more powerful in many respects than other technologies that meet similar needs the telephone, email or online chatting in that it is more กpermanentก, and allows visibility to anyone who can access the Web. It also provides a new way to exercise our natural propensity to form groups with likeminded folks, by allowing us to form กvirtual communitiesก on the Web. It also allows people to กdiscoverก others with similar tastes, wherever they may be in the world.
Well, that leaves ease of use. I am afraid blogging is somewhat less stellar in this respect while it is simpler than creating personal Web pages, it still lags far behind the telephone and email in ease of use. So, ease of use is the first thing that needs to improve about blogs (I hope the blog toolmakers are listening).
If one is tempted to argue that blogging is already very successful, one only needs to pause to consider the numbers: by most estimates there are around 80 million blogs in the world as of today, while the number of telephones worldwide (fixedline and mobile) is around 2 billion. This is not to take anything away from the success of blogging, but only to establish (an admittedly somewhat crude) benchmark!
However, weกve looked at only half the picture so far becoming successful. Success brings its own problems, and sure enough, blogging too will need to overcome a couple of challenges that success brings with it:
Better ways to manage กblog clutterก.
Even with the current number of blogs out there, it is becoming difficult for people to navigate the blogosphere. Telephones or email don’t need to solve this problem as they are กpushก technologies, which means that you *want* to restrict who can contact you using these technologies. However, if blogs are to truly live up to their promise of allowing the กdiscoveryก of likeminded folks, then blog search engines should (and will) get smarter.
Search is of course not the only way to manage clutter for example, Business Weekกs Heather Green talks about creating กinfluential bloggerก lists.
Blogging needs to find ways to enable diverse communication needs
Blogging tools already do a halfdecent job of allowing the sharing of digital content. However, as camera phones proliferate, sharing pictures and movies will increasingly become mainstream. Also blogging from heterogenous devices (phones and home appliances come to mind) is likely to need support.
Of course, this piece only addresses blogging as a กpersonal technologyก. Analysis of its prospects in business which are fledgling at the moment is the subject of a different discussion altogether!
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*This is driven by Metcalfeกs Law, which holds that the usefulness of something increases exponentially as the number of users goes up.
About The Author
Dr. V P Kochikar’s (read his blog at www.webquarters.com) current areas of interest are in Strategic Foresight, the Impact of Technology on Business and Society, Knowledge Management and Technology Risk Management. He has published widely and serves on the editorial advisory boards and review panels for several international journals and conferences. He has also lectured in a guest capacity at business schools and industry fora in India, the US and the UK. Dr Kochikar has been profiled by Knowledge Management Review magazine, and interviewed by, among others, BBC, Business Today magazine, and the Economic Times. He holds a PhD from IIT Madras, a Bachelor’s in Technology from IIT Bombay and a Master’s in Technology from IISc, Bangalore. Dr. Kochikar is a member of the IEEE Computer Society and the Information Resources Management Association (IRMA).
This article was posted on August 26
by Dr V P Kochikar